This is the third in our series of posts about types of predictions. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.
<quote from Real Faith & Reason, vol 2>
Level-2 Predictions:
We might call level-two predictions educated guesses. We use level-two predictions to set the direction when we have incomplete knowledge. We can extrapolate from scientific laws and scientific facts, but we’re taking a risk when we do so. Risks aren’t always bad. When we’re venturing into the unknown, we can follow a vision out of our own hearts or we can ask God to give us wisdom, knowledge, and understanding. We can walk in His Light or in darkness. We’re following our intuition. It’s abductive reasoning. God speaks to us through our intuition. So does our fallen fleshly nature. So do demons. If we seek God, we get God. He’ll make the difference plain between Himself, our flesh, or demonic powers.
Examples:
- predicting the outcome of an entirely new chemical reaction
- designing a new way to construct a plumbing supply system
- designing an entirely new automotive motor
- Einstein predicted gravitational waves. The LIGO observatories eventually observed these waves.
- a completed pass in football
We can only predict what we already know. Much of what we know is simply brute-beast, tentative, sense-data, pseudo-knowledge. And God has revealed true knowledge we can depend on. Therefore, we take a greater risk when we move into unexplored territory. And yet, we use the same data for level-2 predictions as we used for building things according to well-tested methods using standardized materials and procedures. However, we must add thoughts, either true or false, to what we already know to make these level-2 predictions. That being the case, we have three possible sources for whatever thoughts (hunches, ideas, or guesses) we add. The three choices are divine revelation, made-up stuff, or demonic influence. As a result, the best way to discover new truth is by asking God for guidance and following His lead. But God in His mercy also blesses even those who refuse to acknowledge Him by sometimes providing divine revelation and the blessings that come with revelation.
Then there’s the knowledge stored in human minds and used spontaneously. As an illustration, a football receiver predicts that by running at a certain speed he’ll catch the football the quarterback throws. In the same way, the quarterback predicts the receiver will catch the football, and no opposing player will intercept the football.
The football receiver isn’t making logical statements as he runs. He’s calculating, but not consciously multiplying numbers in his head or trying to formulate formal logic. He’s operating in the same way a deer operates when running from a hunter. A bumblebee makes an incredible number of calculations to fly, but the bee couldn’t discuss these calculations with us. We each have a carnal brute-beast mind that reacts to the information our senses bring us. The carnal mind can’t reason rationally using logic. We need a true premise to reason rationally using logic, and a true premise only comes from divine revelation.
How is a football receiver catching a pass different from an evolutionist forming hypotheses? The football receiver does the same thing repeatedly. It’s never exactly the same, but the receiver is, in effect, observing and testing what works and what doesn’t work. The receiver repeats the observing and testing until he programs the effective actions into the neurons that control his eyes, legs, feet, arms, and hands. We call it muscle memory.
<end quote>
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