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Affirming the Consequent Fallacy

Posted on February 16, 2021February 16, 2021 by Petros

This is the eighth in our series of posts about types of predictions. We saved the most deceptive for last. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.

Level-7 Predictions:

Level-seven predictions pretend to prove theories, but they’re actually affirming-the-consequent fallacies and Texas-sharpshooter fallacies.

Examples:

Evolutionists’ predictions are level-7 predictions. If an observation proved a theory, the theory would no longer be a theory. We could see it. We could watch it. It would be an observable scientific fact.

Imagine a scenario. You’re in your bedroom, and you hear a crash in front of your house where you had parked your car on the road. In your mind, you form a theory that someone has crashed into your car. But the theory is gone as soon as you look outside to see a cement truck just demolished your car. Observation replaces the theory, so observation can eliminate a theory by either confirming it or showing it false. The theory stopped being a theory. The theory was no longer theoretical. All theories are theoretical, so the theory vanishes. You have an observed fact. Your car has merged with a cement truck. You can see it.

However, we can’t confirm or falsify some claims by observation because we can’t observe them. For example, we can’t observe events of the distant past repeatedly or confirm the observations by multiple witnesses.

Ed, the owner of a small gas station in the 1960s, owned a phone booth on his property. He controlled the light in the phone booth from a switch in the gas station. When someone came into the phone booth at night, Ed would wait for a while and then switch off the light. The person in the phone booth would react by doing something like pounding on the door, rattling the door, tapping the light, or hitting the phone. It didn’t matter. Ed watched and flipped the light back on and waited a while before turning the light off again. The person repeated what “worked” the first time to turn the light back on. Ed never disappointed these people. Whatever they did the first time “worked” the second, third, and every time after that since Ed watched and turned the switch back on.

Each of these people predicted a way to turn the light back on. “If I pound on the door (or whatever), the light will go back on.” They each tested their hypotheses. They verified them. They thought their hypotheses were valid theories. Then, they converted their theories into facts in their minds.

This story doesn’t mean God is tricking us by creating a false cause and effect. It does mean we often think one cause is responsible when that cause isn’t responsible. God doesn’t trick us. We trick ourselves. Persuaders trick us. Satan tricks us.

Affirming the consequent tricks us. What is affirming the consequent? We covered it earlier, but it’s tricky, so we’ll cover it again. It’s saying, “If such and so is true, I would expect or predict this other thing.” We could write that like this:

If A is true, I would predict to see B.

I see B.

Therefore, A is true.

That sounds like it makes sense, but it doesn’t. Consider the following classic example.

If it’s raining outside, I would predict the sidewalk would be wet.

The sidewalk is wet.

Therefore, it’s raining outside.

Here’s the problem. It’s not raining outside. Someone sprayed the sidewalk with a hose. There could be another cause. Affirming the consequent tricks us.

Since scientists can’t observe their stories about the distant past, they have a problem. They want to confirm them. They like those stories. What do they do. They affirm the consequent. They say, “If the stories of evolutionism were true, I would expect to see rock layers with fossils in the rock layers sorted from smaller and simpler to larger and more complex. I almost observe that. Therefore, the stories of evolutionism are true.” Just like the hose and the sidewalk, another explanation exists. God says He brought a worldwide flood about 4,000 years ago. That flood predicts the same rock layers and fossils. And what we see looks more like a worldwide flood than billions of years.

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Level-5 Predictions: Postdictions

Posted on February 14, 2021February 14, 2021 by Petros

This is the sixth in our series of posts about types of predictions. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.

Level-5 Predictions:

Level-five predictions are historical science postdictions someone made after observations.

Examples:

Postdiction is hindsight bias, and postdictions say, “Since we’ve observed X, we’ve decided X is what we would expect if Y happened in the past.” We can sense there’s something squishy about this prediction argument. If we could rationally link expected behavior to reality, it shouldn’t matter whether scientists made the “predictions” before or after the fact. However, the human mind is tricky, and we can easily rationalize we would have predicted an observed behavior had we predicted it before we observed it. “Oh. This observation is what I would have expected.” We might also shoehorn an observation into an actual prediction once we know about the observation. Often, an unexpected observation causes a problem for a sacred-cow theory.

How do scientists protect the sacred-cow theory? They make up a just-so story to explain how the unexpected observation fits into the sacred-cow story. Then they claim the just-so story “predicts” the unexpected observation. The unexpected observation was a problem for the theory. And then, scientists cleverly transform the troublesome observation into proof for the theory. They say the observation fulfills the prediction of the story they made up to explain the observation. Scientists make up just-so stories for unexpected observations like antibiotic resistance or the millions of missing transitional fossils. They’re making up stories to explain the absence of “junk” DNA and soft tissue in dinosaur fossils.

“Postdiction involves explanation after the fact. In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events such as plane crashes and natural disasters.” ~ Wikipedia

Irrationally, scoffers claim the prophecies of Scripture were postdictions. So what’s the basis of this skeptical claim? Scoffers postulate, and the word “postulate” is a fancy way of saying “making up stuff and calling the made-up stuff true.” That means the basis of the skeptical claim is made-up stuff (postulation). And this postulation (made-up stuff) is another example of the way ungodly thinkers project their problems and limitations onto God and onto those who follow Christ.

Biblical predictions aren’t postdictions. For example, we read the Bible and find the human race is all from one bloodline, but science is just discovering this fact. Scripture also told us the earth is a sphere and described the water cycle long before scientists discovered either of these. God recorded these in Scripture long before we confirmed them by observation. Of course, God makes many other true predictions in the Bible.

Consider the following answer to the prediction problem as discussed by evolutionists.

“Evolutionary theory can predict that if a new species is to arise, it will be through modification of another(s) previously existing now: or by anagenetic change inside a lineage, or by cladogenetic splitting originating 2 or more species, or by merging of 2 or more species (hybridization, polyploidy, symbiogenesis, etc.).” ~ researchgate.net, What are the testable predictions of Darwin’s theory of evolution?

But this statement isn’t a prediction at all. Instead, this quote tries to explain away the observations with just-so stories. Then it claims just-so stories are predictions. Then it claims just-so stories prove the conclusion of evolutionism.

Evolutionists sometimes claim the story of molecules-to-humankind evolutionism predicts antibiotic resistance. But evolutionists didn’t predict antibiotic resistance. Rather, they didn’t expect it, yet they falsely claim they predicted antibiotic resistance. By rewriting history in this way, they ignore what really happened.

Antibiotic resistance surprised scientists who, up until 1969, didn’t predict this resistance. They only “predicted” antibiotic resistance after the observation. They had no reason to expect the observation based on the story of evolution. Consider what we observe versus what evolutionism demands. We observe a loss of information that results in antibiotic resistance. However, evolutionists would expect to observe random events adding new information systems. Evolutionists would expect to see bacteria creating new coded information systems. (creation.com/cis-3) But they don’t observe the spontaneous creation of such complex systems. The molecules-to-humankind story wouldn’t predict what we observe. It wouldn’t predict the cells turn on or off preexisting functions, and this on-off action causes positive changes we observe. Therefore, the observation of antibiotic resistance fits better into the Creation model than the evolution model.

“Many evolutionists claim mutations and antibiotic resistance in bacteria (operational science) as being some sort of prediction of evolution (origins science). In fact, genetics (operational science) was an embarrassment to evolution, which could have been a factor in Mendel’s pioneering genetics research going unrecognized for so many years (Mendel’s discovery of discrete genes did not fit Darwin’s idea of continuous unlimited variation). When mutations were discovered, these were seen as a way of reconciling Darwinism with the observations of operational science—hence the ‘neo-Darwinian’ synthesis of Mayr, Haldane, Fisher, etc. . . . Contrary to evolutionists’ expectations, none of the cases of antibiotic resistance, insecticide resistance, etc. that have been studied at a biochemical level (i.e. operational science) have involved de novo origin of new complex genetic information. In fact, evolutionists never predicted antibiotic resistance, because historically it took the medical field by surprise” ~ Don Batten, ‘It’s not science’

The word “prediction” has two parts, “pre” meaning before, and “diction” meaning putting it into language. So prediction must foretell what we will see. A true prediction doesn’t predict what happened previously since that wouldn’t be prediction but postdiction. We could call it second-guessing and confirmation bias. Here’s the point. Real prediction doesn’t claim an observation is what we would have predicted if we would have predicted it. Instead, prediction plainly states what we will observe before we observe it. Prediction has to happen before the observation or it’s not prediction.

When persuaders want to push a certain story, they’ll use postdiction in subtle ways. For instance, they’ll search around for a quote they can apply to a certain discovery. Those quotes are usually vague and don’t predict what they specifically discovered. That’s what happened with Tiktaalik when scientists applied vague expectations to the discovery of a fossilized fish. They shoehorned previous expectations to match the discovery. And they shoehorned the discovery to make it seem like it matched the previous expectations.

In practice, postdictions are just-so stories persuaders use for confirmation bias. Postdiction creates illusions. Since discoveries are often surprises scientists didn’t predict, the existing theories didn’t predict the discoveries. As a way to keep the original story alive, evolutionists created new stories and claimed these stories as predictions for the unexpected observations. But schools still falsely teach these just-so stories as predictions and give the illusion scientists predicted the discoveries.

There’s a problem with the big-bang-billions-of-years-no-Flood-molecules-to-humankind story. The favored story makes no true predictions. And every postdiction for the favored story works better to support the Creation-Flood model. As a result, no postdiction of the big-bang-billions-of-years-no-Flood-molecules-to-humankind story is necessary for any product or benefit of science.

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Level-4 Predictions

Posted on February 13, 2021February 13, 2021 by Petros

This is the fifth in our series of posts about types of predictions. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.

Level 4 Predictions:

Level four predictions are historical science predictions that were later confirmed by observation. These confirmed predictions don’t prove theories, but theories fail if the predictions fail. All true predictions come from God by divine revelation. We even need divine revelation to understand the predictions of prophecy in the Bible.

Examples:

predictions made by Humphreys’ White Hole/Time Dilation Cosmology—later observed ^{(D. Russell Humphreys, Ph.D., How can Stars Billions of Light Years Away Appear to Adam & Eve?)}
rapid geomagnetic reversals and planetary magnetic fields predicted by the catastrophic plate tectonics model and verified experimentally ^{(Dr. Andrew A. Snelling, Fossil Magnetism Reveals Rapid Reversals of the Earth’s Magnetic Field)}
the prediction of the Creation-Flood model that no one would find the many necessary transitional fossils between kinds of living organisms—now, explored and verified over decades of research
other biblical predictions mentioned by Ken Ham during the Nye-Ham debate

These examples are predictions of what we should observe if a certain thing happened in the past. For instance, we could say, “X is what we would expect if Y happened in the past. Let’s test to see if X is true.” However, these are signs rather than proof for theories. Trying to use them as proof is the fallacy of affirming the consequent. In this light, consider the following transcript from a discussion with Dr. Humphreys:

Dr. Wieland: Well, a good scientific theory is one which makes predictions, and it was exciting to hear about several models of yours, based on creation, which generated successful predictions.

Dr. Humphreys: One model was based on 2 Peter 3:5, which talks about how God made the earth, and I applied that. I took that as a clue, and had an idea about how God might have started out the earth’s magnetic field. And then I found that worked fairly well and it gave the right strength for the earth’s magnetic field.

So I then asked myself, ‘Perhaps God used the same method to make the other bodies in the solar system, the sun and the moon and the planets?’ So I calculated the fields of all the planets that we had already explored up to that time, which was 1984, and the theory gave right values for those planets also.

I published these results in a Creation Research Society Quarterly article in December, 1984, and in that article I said that a good test of my theory would be to check out what the strength of the fields of the planets Uranus and Neptune were relative to my theory. For Uranus, the evolutionary predictions were generally about 100,000 times less than my published predictions, so I thought it was a good test.

Dr. Wieland: So, what was the result when Voyager finally made the measurements?

Dr. Humphreys: The result was smack in the middle of my prediction, and 100,000 times greater than the evolutionary predictions. So the creation model was the clear winner in that case.

Dr. Wieland: And for Neptune as well.

Dr. Humphreys: Yes, that’s right.

Dr. Wieland: Did you get any comments from evolutionists about these fulfilled predictions?

Dr. Humphreys: Yes. Stephen Brush, a fairly well-known anti-creationist in the United States, wrote to me after the first prediction came true and I had mentioned this in an ICR Impact article. He said he was basically trying to find some way around the fact that I had made a prediction, and I wrote him a polite letter back and tried to explain things to him. He wrote another letter back and that was the end of the correspondence.

But about six months later, an article by him appeared in Science magazine. The gist of it was that ‘Well, predictions are not really a way to do good science’, so he was basically backing down from the classical scientific view that predictions are a good way to validate a theory.

~ Carl Wieland, Creation in the physics lab

From the examples given, we can see that level 3 predictions aren’t postdictions. In other words, someone predicted it before anyone observed it. Someone didn’t postdict it in response to someone observing it. In every case, the prediction foretold a future observation. Even so, the prediction of the theory doesn’t prove the theory.

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Level-Three Predictions

Posted on February 12, 2021February 12, 2021 by Petros

This is the fourth in our series of posts about types of predictions. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org. Some of the lies surrounding evolutionism are complex. People repeat them and think they’re true without ever thinking seriously about them. They throw critical thinking out the window.

Level-3 Predictions:

Level-three predictions are practical applications using a theory to predict. Predictions don’t come from the theory directly, but we receive the predictions. They can come from divine revelation. God can’t lie. He tells us the truth. Predictions can come from the deceitful and wicked human mind, or demonic entities that lie and destroy. If we seek Christ, we’ll find Him. He’ll give us discernment if we persist. We can ask Him any question. As we mature spiritually, our discernment also improves.

Examples:

Scientists design theories based on observations. So, the theories fit the observations but go beyond observation. Where did these scientists get information beyond what anyone has seen or experienced? God may have given Albert Einstein divine revelation when working on the Quantum Theory. He was a man who confessed that he wanted to know God’s mind. We can’t know the Quantum Theory is true. We can’t be certain, but we can use Quantum Theory to predict.

Sandy Sandbuilder: The development of advanced microchips uses the predictions of Quantum Theory. You deny the computer and your cell phone if you say theories don’t lead to knowledge.

Rocky Rockbuilder: God may give a man like Einstein an insight into something like Quantum Mechanics, and this insight can lead to a theory. The theory may contain some truth and some fiction in it, but it works. It can change if something it predicts doesn’t work. However, you’re trying to make Quantum Mechanics something it isn’t. Cell phone and computer manufacturers don’t just build a production facility based on the theory. They try many ideas in the lab before putting those ideas into production. If it were as predictable as you claim, scientists wouldn’t have tested or tinkered to get these to work. They would have just built the most advanced cell phone possible the first time. And there would have been no risk or chance of losing money on a failed idea.

Those who build on sand confuse the issue. Bringing up Quantum Theory confuses issues even better than bringing up theories about the Second Law of Thermodynamics. So let’s clear the fog. Quantum Theory didn’t cause knowledge to pop into existence. If the theory contains truth, that truth came from Jesus Christ.

John Matson wrote an article titled What is Quantum Mechanics Good for? and published in Scientific American. In that article, he said the following:

Without quantum mechanics, there would be no transistor, and hence no personal computer; no laser, and hence no Blu-ray players.

Matson used the term “quantum mechanics” rather than saying “the Quantum Theory.” The observations of quantum mechanics and the theories about the observations are two very different things.

Whatever is happening in what we call “quantum mechanics” is what makes these inventions work, but it doesn’t answer this question. Did the inventors make technology by following the predictions of quantum mechanics, or did the technology come about by some other means? That’s a hard question to answer, but it misses the point anyway. Here’s the point. We might predict something. That’s not the same as knowing the truth. We haven’t proved the cause. We have a working model. We have a way of thinking about it. We can use that working model to help us find solutions. We know our model works. We don’t know our model is real. It’s practical. It’s pragmatic. And any truth that may exist in Quantum Theory came from Jesus Christ whether ungodly thinkers want to give Him the glory or not. If we can use a framework of thinking to predict how things will work, we have a pragmatic crutch at best.

Going back to Sandy’s claim, another problem exists. Sandy was arguing in favor of the Theory of Evolution. Sandy’s problem is a complex lie. Sandy’s problem has several parts. Sandy implied someone used the predictions of the theory of quantum mechanics to create the technology. Sandy didn’t say it. Sandy implied someone used the theory to create cell phones and computers. We’ve already answered that suggestion.

Besides, Sandy combined two issues into a single issue. Creating a theory about what’s happening in the present is one thing. Creating a theory about what supposedly happened in the past is quite another thing. We can’t use the same methods to test the predictions of these different kinds of theories. Sandy uses a different definition of the word “test” in each case. Here’s another fatal problem. The stories don’t predict. Stories about billions of years don’t predict. Stories about molecules coming to life don’t predict. Sandy is lying when he implies they predict. We never use these stories to create working technology. We can’t use stories about molecules turning into people over billions of years to create technology.

Quantum Theory could be useful. However, the theory wasn’t the tool that developed the transistor. Rather, scientists observed an unexpected behavior in crystals. They were trying to develop a faster switch. They invented the transistor, which was a faster switch. Quantum Theory is a possible explanation of the strange behavior, but it didn’t lead to the invention. Here’s the kicker. If scientists had used Quantum Theory to develop transistors and solid-state technology, that wouldn’t prove Quantum Theory. Nor would it help the stories of evolutionism.

Even if we can use a theory to predict what might happen under certain conditions, that doesn’t prove the theory is true. It proves we can use the theory to make predictions in areas where scientists have observed and tested those predictions. Who knows? We may find other predictions that turn out to work where the theory acts as a stimulus. Theories always go beyond scientists’ experiments and testing. They try to guess why and how the observations came to be.

We don’t call a theory “a fact.” Here’s why. We can’t test the why and how. We can directly test facts. We observe facts. We see facts. We can’t see why and how. We can use the theory because it predicts. We can take action based on the prediction. And we can test the results of that action. For example, we can test computer chips in the present. They work or they don’t work. However, we can’t test stories about big bangs, billions of years, or molecules coming to life and morphing into all the living organisms we now observe. Some say predictions test the stories. Predictions don’t test the stories. If we try to test stories with predictions, we commit the fallacy of affirming the consequent.

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Level-Two Predictions

Posted on February 11, 2021February 11, 2021 by Petros

This is the third in our series of posts about types of predictions. God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.

Level-2 Predictions:

We might call level-two predictions educated guesses. We use level-two predictions to set the direction when we have incomplete knowledge. We can extrapolate from scientific laws and scientific facts, but we’re taking a risk when we do so. Risks aren’t always bad. When we’re venturing into the unknown, we can follow a vision out of our own hearts or we can ask God to give us wisdom, knowledge, and understanding. We can walk in His Light or in darkness. We’re following our intuition. It’s abductive reasoning. God speaks to us through our intuition. So does our fallen fleshly nature. So do demons. If we seek God, we get God. He’ll make the difference plain between Himself, our flesh, or demonic powers.

Examples:

predicting the outcome of an entirely new chemical reaction
designing a new way to construct a plumbing supply system
designing an entirely new automotive motor
Einstein predicted gravitational waves. The LIGO observatories eventually observed these waves.
a completed pass in football

We can only predict what we already know. Much of what we know is simply brute-beast, tentative, sense-data, pseudo-knowledge. And God has revealed true knowledge we can depend on. Therefore, we take a greater risk when we move into unexplored territory. And yet, we use the same data for level-2 predictions as we used for building things according to well-tested methods using standardized materials and procedures. However, we must add thoughts, either true or false, to what we already know to make these level-2 predictions. That being the case, we have three possible sources for whatever thoughts (hunches, ideas, or guesses) we add. The three choices are divine revelation, made-up stuff, or demonic influence. As a result, the best way to discover new truth is by asking God for guidance and following His lead. But God in His mercy also blesses even those who refuse to acknowledge Him by sometimes providing divine revelation and the blessings that come with revelation.

Then there’s the knowledge stored in human minds and used spontaneously. As an illustration, a football receiver predicts that by running at a certain speed he’ll catch the football the quarterback throws. In the same way, the quarterback predicts the receiver will catch the football, and no opposing player will intercept the football.

The football receiver isn’t making logical statements as he runs. He’s calculating, but not consciously multiplying numbers in his head or trying to formulate formal logic. He’s operating in the same way a deer operates when running from a hunter. A bumblebee makes an incredible number of calculations to fly, but the bee couldn’t discuss these calculations with us. We each have a carnal brute-beast mind that reacts to the information our senses bring us. The carnal mind can’t reason rationally using logic. We need a true premise to reason rationally using logic, and a true premise only comes from divine revelation.

How is a football receiver catching a pass different from an evolutionist forming hypotheses? The football receiver does the same thing repeatedly. It’s never exactly the same, but the receiver is, in effect, observing and testing what works and what doesn’t work. The receiver repeats the observing and testing until he programs the effective actions into the neurons that control his eyes, legs, feet, arms, and hands. We call it muscle memory.

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God Reveals Knowledge So We Can Survive

Posted on February 10, 2021February 10, 2021 by Petros

God hates lies. Lies are an abomination to God. Lies oppose God. Sometimes, ungodly thinkers commit fallacies of prediction to oppose God. This quote explains one level of prediction. Some levels of prediction are helpful. Others are deceptive. Speaking about predictions without pointing out the difference between various levels of prediction is deceptive. It’s an equivocation fallacy and a package deal fallacy. You can look those up in The Encyclopedia of Logical Fallacies free for download from RealReality.org.

Level 1 Predictions:

Level one predictions are predictions we can use to design and build things. With these predictions, we can take actions according to well-tested methods using standardized materials and procedures. These predictions spring from scientific facts and scientific laws rather than scientific theories or scientific hypotheses. All this knowledge came from God even though we may now find it in books and databases. Even now, we can stand in the presence of the One Who knows everything and Who has all wisdom when we apply these predictions.

Examples:

looking up the proportions of chemicals needed to make a known glue
using knowledge of the strength of aluminum to design a light-weight support for an awning that will withstand 60 mph wind force
adding the right amount of lime to a field to bring the soil pH to the correct level for growing a certain crop based on what’s already known

At this level, we can predict the results of actions based on tested and verified data. We can find this data stored in databases and reference texts. This data allows accurate predictions of what will happen if we take a certain action. For instance, we can build the same airplane design hundreds of times and predict each plane will fly. Although much of this science and engineering is brute-beast, tentative pseudo-knowledge, God has given us any true knowledge we have.

We know facts beyond what we store in tables, charts, and databases. We store knowledge in human minds. And we use that knowledge spontaneously. For instance, a water skier predicts a certain combination of body movements will allow her to make a certain difficult maneuver every time she performs in public. In the same way, a carpenter routinely predicts the way he swings his hammer will cause it to hit the nail and drive it into the wood. These predictions come from hours and hours of performing the same movements and learning what works and doesn’t work by experience.

As with all knowledge, people can use this knowledge for good or evil. Ungodly people can know the damage a certain drug will do but lie to the public for the sake of money or control. Ungodly persuaders who control the great-false-prophet media and education can use that system to spread fear or hate with messages they know are false.

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Seven Levels of Predictions

Posted on February 9, 2021February 9, 2021 by Petros

The Prediction Argument Isn’t Simple

The idea of using predictions isn’t as simple as it first appears. Predictions come in several flavors.

In the list below, we use the term “historical science.” However, that term is problematic as we’ve already discovered. A clearer term would be “historical storytelling.” We might have artifacts like letters, photographs, or artwork. We can examine those in the present. When we have existing parts of the cosmos like stars, geology, or living organisms, we can observe those in the present. Nevertheless, we can’t observe historical stories in the present. God can reveal history, but humans can also make up stories about history. When humans make up stories about history, they generally begin with observations. Then, they try to extrapolate from the observations. Sometimes, humans try to extrapolate from what God has revealed. That’s also a problem. The more they extrapolate, the more fanciful their stories become. So, we’re using the term “historical science” to indicate some combination of observation, storytelling, and divine revelation. “Historical science,” is a broad term, but we need a term that includes both godly thinking and ungodly thinking.

Seven Levels of Predictions:

Level 1 Predictions: Designing and building things, or taking actions, according to well-tested methods using standardized materials and procedures

Level 2 Predictions: Educated guesses to set the direction in areas not completely known

Level 3 Predictions: Practical application using a theory to predict

Level 4 Predictions: Historical science predictions later confirmed by observation

Level 5 Predictions: Historical science postdictions made after observations and then falsely called “predictions”

Level 6 Predictions: Historical science phantom predictions based on false representations of observed results or other faulty thinking

Level 7 Predictions: Predictions that pretend to prove theories. These predictions are actually affirming-the-consequent fallacies and Texas-sharpshooter fallacies

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Are Predictions Useful?

Posted on February 8, 2021February 8, 2021 by Petros

Are Predictions useful?

Predictions are useful and important. For example, we predict turning the steering wheel will have an expected effect on the direction the car is going, so we steer the car. As another example, we predict working hard will increase the odds of making progress toward our goals, so we work hard. As another case in point, we predict injuring ourselves will cause pain, so we avoid injuring ourselves. So, from these examples, we can see we take many actions based on predictions. At the same time, some people use predictions to “prove” their speculations. They deceive themselves. They affirm the consequent. Some scientists think predictions “prove” theories. That’s irrational. Without divine revelation, the brute-beast human mind can’t think rationally beyond what it can observe and test. When it tries, it relies on smokescreen fallacies like affirming the consequent.

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