We’ve seen that Pierce’s abductive schema is just guessing. Let’s look at the other side of that quote:
“Science uses a specific form of Peirce’s abductive schema and can be given a rigorous justification in terms of Bayes’ theorem.”
(quote from RealReality.org/Real_Faith_and_Reason_Vol_2_-_Scientia.pdf)
What is Bayes’ theorem then?
Bayes’ theorem is a mathematical formula, so it can give the illusion of accuracy when it’s nothing but a guess. When scientists use this theorem to “know” what happened in the distant past, they always create an illusion.
To use Bayes’ theorem sanely, those who use it must first calculate two numbers. The numbers are probabilities. Scientists must calculate those two probabilities. They then put those two numbers into Bayes’ theorem. When they have no sane way to calculate the probabilities, they guess the probabilities and then plug them into the formula. In these cases, Bayes’ theorem works by making up stuff.
Here’s their trick. They use Pierce’s abductive schema (guessing) to propose a series of steps going back to the origin. They have no way to rationally test for the probability. And yet, they continue. They need the two probabilities. They can’t rationally calculate those probabilities, so they make them up. That’s called a rigged game. That’s called a scam. Unfortunately, these scammers also call it “science.” They convert science into a scamming system. They then apply the scamming system to more than history. They scam people into fear for money and power. They’re doing it all around you. They say the word “science,” and you’re supposed to believe their lies.
Worldviews, groupthink, assumptions, and presuppositions control the Bayes’ theorem method. That means it doesn’t follow sound logic. It’s touchy-feely. Scientists can test a probability better when they can test and observe two alternatives under controlled conditions. If they can’t observe two alternatives under controlled conditions, they can’t rationally use this method. It doesn’t work at all for historical, moral, or spiritual matters. It doesn’t work in medicine when they don’t have enough data to calculate the two probabilities accurately.
Here’s the situation. While Bayes’ theorem depends on calculating accurate probabilities of various possibilities, persuaders find many ways to insert flimflam into probability. For instance, persuaders may calculate the probability of one event by using formulas for conditional probability and assuming another event happened. So their entire calculation depends on assumptions.
What’s the probability matter and energy came into existence without God. An evolutionist will calculate near 100% probability saying, “After all, matter and energy exist, so they had to form out of nothing, and no alternative exists.” But a person who knows Christ and who experiences His leading, teaching, and correcting will calculate 0% probability based on the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics and divine revelation. The same applies to stories about billions of years, stories about non-living molecules turning into humans, and stories about life coming from non-life. For all these examples, intelligent people on both sides argue endlessly.
(end quote)
