(quote from RealReality.org/Real_Faith_and_Reason_Vol_2_-_Scientia.pdf)
Abduction as a Way of Knowing
“I’m looking for explanations of the creation of the world as we know it based on what I’m going to call ‘science.’ Not historical science—not observational science—science! Things that each of us can do akin to what we do; we’re trying to out-guess the characters on murder mystery shows, on crime scene investigation especially.” ~ Bill Nye
We might think Bill is out of touch when he implies science is akin to guessing, but many scientists agree. They just put it into different words. Consider the following quote from a science professor acquaintance:
“Science uses a specific form of Peirce’s abductive schema and can be given a rigorous justification in terms of Bayes’ theorem.”
Doesn’t this statement sound impressive? Those words do give the illusion of sanity. However, we run into terrible problems with this thinking. For instance, we run into the Sherlock-Holmes fallacy. While the fictional character, Sherlock Holmes, falsely called his thinking “deduction,” it was abduction.
What is Peirce’s abductive schema?
Peirce said abduction is like guessing, and that’s what it is. Guessing!
Abduction brings us back to the main problem to overcome when thinking since guessing is a form of making up stuff. If we don’t know, we just guess. If we don’t know, we just make up something. Abduction makes up a story about the “most likely” cause of something we observe. It does that by guessing.
As a result, abduction doesn’t use logic. Nor does it try to be rational, so we can immediately see the problems. When faced with two or more feasible causes, human beings can’t determine the “most likely” cause. Nor can they know they’ve isolated all the possible causes to evaluate. If we claim we’ve isolated all the possible causes, we’re asserting a universal negative. Only God can rationally assert a universal negative. The problem is more severe than that. Without divine anointing, humans can’t keep their worldviews or biases from deceiving them. They can’t keep the groupthink body of knowledge of the establishment from deceiving them. They can’t keep groupthink confirmation bias in the form of peer review from deceiving them. The natural human mind can’t avoid foolishness because it’s deceitful and desperately wicked. Therefore, no one can know anything using Pierce’s abductive schema.
(end quote)






