<quote from Real Faith & Reason, vol 2>
The Prediction Argument Isn’t Simple
The idea of using predictions isn’t as simple as it first appears. Predictions come in several flavors.
In the list below, we use the term “historical science.” However, that term is problematic as we’ve already discovered. A clearer term would be “historical storytelling.” We might have artifacts like letters, photographs, or artwork. We can examine those in the present. When we have existing parts of the cosmos like stars, geology, or living organisms, we can observe those in the present. Nevertheless, we can’t observe historical stories in the present. God can reveal history, but humans can also make up stories about history. When humans make up stories about history, they generally begin with observations. Then, they try to extrapolate from the observations. Sometimes, humans try to extrapolate from what God has revealed. That’s also a problem. The more they extrapolate, the more fanciful their stories become. So, we’re using the term “historical science” to indicate some combination of observation, storytelling, and divine revelation. “Historical science,” is a broad term, but we need a term that includes both godly thinking and ungodly thinking.
Level 1 Predictions: Designing and building things, or taking actions, according to well-tested methods using standardized materials and procedures
Level 2 Predictions: Educated guesses to set the direction in areas not completely known
Level 3 Predictions: Practical application using a theory to predict
Level 4 Predictions: Historical science predictions later confirmed by observation
Level 5 Predictions: Historical science postdictions made after observations and then falsely called “predictions”
Level 6 Predictions: Historical science phantom predictions based on false representations of observed results or other faulty thinking
Level 7 Predictions: Predictions that pretend to prove theories. These predictions are actually affirming-the-consequent fallacies and Texas-sharpshooter fallacies
<end quote>
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